
Professor Chris Rhodes at Café Scientifique
What happens when we run out of oil? – Professor Chris Rhodes, director of Fresh-lands Environmental Action 7:30pm Tuesday 13 March 2012 – Prof Chris Rhodes
In his talk ‘What happens when we run out of oil?’, included as one of the Oxford Café Scientifique series at Science Oxford last night, Professor Chris Rhodes pointed out that whatever alternative energy sources may be available in future (electricity, or hydrogen from electricity), we’re stuck with a transport infrastructure relying on a liquid fuel.
In his view, our political leaders are in a ‘state of denial’ about the dwindling supplies of oil, and no technology is on the horizon to deal with the inevitable supply issues, meaning only demand side issues are capable of addressing the inevitable shortfalls he foresees as early as in the next five years.
With petrol, he projects, then at £5 a litre and rising, any response will need to manage wholescale societal changes. To ease the adjustment to lower energy lifestyles, he proposed the implementation of an ‘energy descent plan’ to avoid anarchy.
His foresees the answer to his question of what then happens as a change toward ‘localism’.
Professor Chris Rhodes is Director of Fresh-lands Environmental Actions and is based in Reading. He has written numerous scientific articles and recently published his first novel University Shambles, a black comedy on the disintegration of the British university system.
These are my notes of the talk- with all opinions therein those of Chris Rhodes…
We rely on oil for almost all our transport energy requirements, but also for food, pharmaceuticals, plastics and water production. Oil produces 38% of all energy demand, with gas at 23%, coal at 29%, nuclear 6%, hydropower 6%, and solar and other renewables at just 0.1%.
Current demand for oil is 30BN Barrels a year, 84 million a day; with a the US responsible for a quarter.
The problem is that oil production has, in many parts of the world, passed its peak, and the remaining sources will require increasing energy to extract (as the most easily accessed sources are exhausted first). The supply problems are exacerbated by the fact that the return from the oil extracted will be less and less as the remain crude oil will also require more energy to refine.
Such a energy rich fuel means we don’t have a ready technology to replace it however. For the UK, we would need 70,000 wind turbines, or double our available arable land of sugar beet for ethanol, to replace the energy demand.
Chris Rhodes suggested that if research had been funded over the last 40 years there could be solutions but this had not happend.
Possible solutions that could be developed he suggested could be biodiesel from algae. Plants growing algae on waste water, which would also treat the water and extract CO2 from the air could be a win-win solution. The technology was investigated by the 1970s, but the idea was dropped during the Carter Administration, due to cost but then oil was at $10/barrel compared to $125/barrel at present. Oil companies are investing in technologies such as this, but a fraction of what they spend on prospecting for oil.
Impacts
Professor Rhodes sees no chance that electric vehicles could replace the current fleet of 34M cars in the UK. Personalised transportation has less of a future; we will need to go back to working closer to home for instance.

Professor Chris Rhodes at Café Scientifique
Cheap foreign holidays for ordinary people will also become a thing of the past.
Peak Oil will also result in ‘Peak Phosphate’. Much of agriculture depends on phosphate based fertilisers that are dependent on oil. Nitrogen based fertilsers will, likewise, be under stress.
Managing the energy descent - tackling the demand side
1. Permaculture. Permaculture is a method of food production designed for more efficient use of inputs; such as not ploughing fields, recycling phosphates (such as by composting, and use of human waste).
2. Grow more food locally
3. Working locally
A Happy ending? – Transistion towns
Transistion towns were suggested as an example of a possible ‘happy ending’ – where local econonies implement an energy descent plan: ways of living for low energy lifestyles, including sustainable jobs, more practical skills, and growing food locally.
Chris ended his talk citing Charles Kingsley “We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need to make us really happy is something to be enthusiastic about”.’